Leave a Message

Thank you for your message. We will be in touch with you shortly.

What's the Impact of Presidential Elections on the Housing Market?

Mike Doyle August 28, 2024

It’s no surprise that the upcoming Presidential election might have you speculating about what’s ahead. And those unanswered thoughts can quickly spiral, causing fear and uncertainty to swirl through your mind. So, if you’ve been considering buying or selling a home this year, you’re probably curious about what the election might mean for the housing market – and if it’s still a good time to make your move.

Here’s the good news that may surprise you: typically, Presidential elections have only had a small, temporary impact on the housing market. But your questions are definitely worth answering, so you don’t have to pause your plans in the meantime.

Here’s a look at decades of data that shows exactly what’s happened to home sales, prices, and mortgage rates in previous Presidential election cycles, so you can move forward with the facts as you weigh the pros and cons of your homeownership decision.

Home Sales

In the month leading up to a Presidential election, from October to November, there’s typically a slight slowdown in home sales (see graph below):

Some consumers will simply wait it out before they make their purchase decision. However, it’s important to know this slowdown is small and temporary.

Historically, home sales bounce right back and continue to rise the following year.

In fact, data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows after 9 of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales went up the year after the election, and it’s been happening consistently since the early 1990s (see chart below):

Home Prices

You may also be wondering about home prices. Do prices come down during election years? Not typically. As residential appraiser and housing analyst Ryan Lundquist notes:

“An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.”

Home prices generally rise over time, regardless of an election cycle. So, based on what history shows, you can expect the current pricing trend in your local market to likely continue, barring any unusual market or economic circumstances.

The latest data from NAR reveals that after 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections, home prices increased the following year (see chart below):

The one outlier was from 2008 to 2009, which was during the height of the housing market crash. That was certainly not a typical year. Today’s market, however, is much more resilient. And while prices are moderating nationally, they aren’t on an overall decline.

Mortgage Rates

And the third thing that’s likely on your mind is mortgage rates, since they impact your monthly payment if you’re financing a home. Looking at the last 11 Presidential election years, data from Freddie Mac shows mortgage rates decreased from July to November in 8 of them (see chart below):

And this year, we’ve already started to see that happen. Most experts also forecast mortgage rates will ease slightly throughout the rest of 2024. If that happens – and all signs right now indicate it should – this year will continue to follow the trend of declining rates. So, if you’re looking to buy a home in the coming months, this could be great news for your purchasing power.

What This Means for You

What’s the big takeaway? While Presidential elections do have some impact on the housing market, the effects are usually minimal. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says:

“Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.”

For most buyers and sellers, elections don’t have a major impact on their plans.

Bottom Line

While it’s natural to feel a bit uncertain during an election year, history shows the housing market remains strong and resilient. And this means you don’t have to pause your plans in the meantime. For help navigating the market during this election cycle, let’s connect.


Recent Blog Posts

Stay up to date on the latest real estate trends.

A Resilient Rental Market Shows Positive Signs For Next Year

The newest Zillow Rental Market Report is out, and it’s showing ‘‘a softening of the rental market beyond regular seasonality.’’ Apparently, rental demand dipped doubl… Read more

Why Home Sales Bounce Back After Presidential Elections

With the 2024 Presidential election fast approaching, you might be wondering what impact, if any, it’s having on the housing market. Let’s break it down.

Avoid These Top Homebuyer Mistakes in Today’s Market

No one likes making mistakes, especially when they happen in what’s likely the biggest transaction of your life – buying a home.

Why Your House Will Shine in Today’s Market

Even though there are more homes available for sale than there were at this time last year, there are still more buyers than there are houses to choose from.

How Long Will It Take To Sell Your House?

As you’re getting ready to sell your house, one of the first questions you’re probably asking is, “how long is this going to take?” And that makes sense—you want to kn… Read more

What To Expect from Mortgage Rates and Home Prices in 2025

Curious about where the housing market is headed in 2025?

How Much Does It Cost To Sell My House?

If you’re toying with the idea of selling your house, you’re probably wondering how much it’ll cost.

Secrets To Selling Your House Quickly

Seeing your house sit on the market without any bites is the ultimate frustration. And unfortunately, some sellers are in that tricky spot today.

Why Buying Now May Be Worth It in the Long Run

Should you buy a home now or should you wait? That’s a question a lot of people have these days.

Let's Connect

For expert real estate services, reach out to Mike Doyle. Whether you're buying, selling, or renting, navigate the process with confidence. Contact him today to ensure a smooth and informed real estate journey.