Leave a Message

Thank you for your message. We will be in touch with you shortly.

Think It’s Better To Wait for a Recession Before You Move? Think Again.

Mike Doyle June 27, 2025



Fear of a recession is back in the headlines. And if you’re thinking about buying or selling sometime soon, that may leave you wondering if you should reconsider the timing of your move.

A recent survey by John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC) and Keeping Current Matters (KCM) shows 68% of people are delaying plans to buy or sell due to economic uncertainty.

But it may not be for the reason you think. Not everyone is holding off because they’re worried. Some buyers are waiting because they’re hopeful. According to Realtor.com:

In 2025Q1, 3 in 10 (29.8% of) surveyed homebuyers said a recession would make them at least somewhat more likely to purchase a home . . . This reflects a common dynamic where some buyers see a downturn as an opportunity. If the economy enters a recession, the Federal Reserve may respond by lowering interest rates to stimulate activity, potentially putting downward pressure on mortgage rates and easing affordability concerns. As a result, buyers—especially those with limited down payments—might view a recession as a more favorable time to enter the market.”

And there’s some truth to the idea that a recession could bring about lower mortgage rates. History shows mortgage rates usually drop during economic slowdowns. That’s not guaranteed – but it is a common pattern. Looking at data from the last six recessions, you can see mortgage rates fell each time (see graph below): 

a graph of a graph showing the rise of mortgage ratesBut here’s what those buyers may not be considering. Many of those hopeful buyers are assuming something else will happen too – that home prices will drop. And that’s where history tells a different story.

According to data from Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), home prices went up in four of the last six recessions (see graph below)

So, while many people think that if a recession hits, home prices will fall like they did in 2008, that was an exception, not the rule. It was the only time the market saw such a steep drop in prices. And it hasn’t happened since, mainly because there’s still a long-standing inventory deficit, even as the number of homes on the market is rising.

Since prices tend to stay on whatever path they’re already on, know this: prices are still holding steady or rising in most metros, although at a much slower pace. So, a big drop isn’t likely. As Robert Frick, Corporate Economist with Navy Federal Credit Union, explains:

"Hopes that an economic slowdown will depress housing prices are wishful thinking at this point . . ."

Bottom Line

If you’ve been waiting for a recession to make your move, it’s important to understand what really happens during one – and what likely won’t. Lower mortgage rates could be on the table. But lower home prices? That’s far less likely.

Don’t wait for a market that may never come. If you’re thinking about buying or selling, let’s connect to talk through what today’s economy really means for you – and make a smart plan that works in your favor, regardless of what the headlines say.

Recent Blog Posts

Stay up to date on the latest real estate trends.

The Data Says the Market is Shifting—Here’s How Investors Should Be Adjusting

If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the right time to invest in real estate again, this is your signal: The buyer’s market has arrived.

The “Golden Age” of Real Estate is Over

The so-called “golden age” of real estate investing—the era of low prices, rock-bottom interest rates, and sky-high cash flow—is behind us.

Housing Market Forecasts for the Rest of 2025

If you’ve been watching the market, you’ve likely noticed a few changes already this year. But what’s next? From home prices to mortgage rates, here’s what the latest … Read more

New Changes to an Environmental Law Could Create a Real Estate Boom in California

Housing developers may have thrown their hard hats into the air to celebrate the news that California Governor Gavin Newsom is reforming the California Environmental Q… Read more

An Operating Costs Crisis That’s Driving Many Landlords Out of Business

Over the past year, the gap between the number of active sellers and active buyers has widened to its largest margin since the wake of the Great Recession. According t… Read more

Real Estate

Key Questions to Ask During an Open House in Fountain Valley, CA

Essential Inquiries for Prospective Homebuyers in Fountain Valley

Half of OC has home-price declines. How did your ZIP do?

The priciest ZIP was Newport Beach 92661 with a $5.7 million median. Cheapest? Santa Ana 92701 at $447,000.

Think No One’s Buying Homes Right Now? Think Again.

If you’ve seen headlines saying home sales are down compared to last year, you might be thinking – is it even a good time to sell? 

Think It’s Better To Wait for a Recession Before You Move? Think Again.

Fear of a recession is back in the headlines. And if you’re thinking about buying or selling sometime soon, that may leave you wondering if you should reconsider the t… Read more

Let's Connect

For expert real estate services, reach out to Mike Doyle. Whether you're buying, selling, or renting, navigate the process with confidence. Contact him today to ensure a smooth and informed real estate journey.