Why Home Sales Bounce Back After Presidential Elections
Mike Doyle October 31, 2024
Mike Doyle October 31, 2024
With the 2024 Presidential election fast approaching, you might be wondering what impact, if any, it’s having on the housing market. Let’s break it down.
In any given year, home sales slow down slightly in the fall. It’s a typical, seasonal trend. However, according to data from BTIG, in election years there’s usually a slightly larger dip in home sales in the month leading up to Election Day (see graph below):
Why? Uncertainty. Many consumers hold off on making major decisions or purchases while they wait to see how the election will play out. It’s a pattern that’s shown up time and time again, and it's particularly apparent for buyers and sellers in the housing market.
This year is no different. A recent survey from Redfin found that 23% of potential first-time homebuyers said they’re waiting until after the election to buy. That’s nearly a quarter of first-time buyers hitting the pause button, likely due to the same feelings of uncertainty.
The good news is these delayed sales aren’t lost forever—they’re just postponed. History shows sales tend to rebound after the election is over. In fact, home sales have actually increased 82% of the time in the year after the election (see chart below):
That’s because once the election dust settles, buyers and sellers have a sense of what’s ahead and generally feel more confident moving forward with their decisions. And that leads to a boost in home sales.
If history is any indicator, that means more homes will sell next year. And based on the latest forecasts, that’s exactly what you should expect. As the graph below shows, the housing market is on pace to sell a total of 4.6 million homes this year, and projections are for 5.2 million total sales next year (see graph below):
And that aligns with the typical pattern of post-election rebounds.
So, while it might feel like the market is slowing down right now, it’s more of a temporary dip rather than a long-term trend. As has been the case before, once the election uncertainty passes, buyers and sellers will return to the market.
It’s important to remember that while election years often bring a short-term slowdown in the housing market, the pause is usually temporary. Those sales are not lost. Data shows home sales typically increase the year after a Presidential election, and current forecasts indicate 2025 will be no different. If you’re waiting for a clearer picture before making a move, just know that the market is expected to pick up speed in the months ahead.
Stay up to date on the latest real estate trends.
Last year, 70% of buyers abandoned their home search – and maybe you were one of them. It makes sense. Inventory was low, prices were high, and mortgage rates were up … Read more
Spring is in full swing, and the housing market is picking up along with it.
Want to know two reasons this spring might finally be your time to buy? Inventory has grown and sellers may be more willing to negotiate as a result. That means you’ve… Read more
At one point or another, you’ve probably heard someone say, “Yesterday was the best time to buy a home, but the next best time is today.”
Many people are hoping mortgage rates will come down before they buy a home. But will that actually happen? According to the latest forecasts, experts say rates will d… Read more
It feels like everything is getting more expensive these days. That’s because inflation has remained higher than normal for longer than expected – and that’s impacting… Read more
California Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara denied State Farm's urgent request for an average 22% rate hike for homeowners in the state.
Some homeowners hesitate to sell because they’ve got unanswered questions that hold them back. But a lot of times their concerns are based on misconceptions, not facts.
Over the past few years, home prices skyrocketed. That’s been frustrating for buyers, leaving many wondering if they’d ever get a shot at owning a home. But here’s som… Read more
For expert real estate services, reach out to Mike Doyle. Whether you're buying, selling, or renting, navigate the process with confidence. Contact him today to ensure a smooth and informed real estate journey.